At the beginning of August, usually a very quiet period for BAB convening, we were pleased to be asked to host an event for the UK Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, who made her first overseas trip since the election to New York. As the first women in the role since its inception more than 800 years ago, the theme for the reception was celebrating and championing Women in Finance and we had a fantastic turn out for the event. Thanks are due to BAB Advisory Board member, Paul Taylor, CEO of Fitch Group, for hosting us at the ever-impressive Hearst Tower and to Gillian Tett of the FT for moderating the fireside chat with the Chancellor.
That she should choose the USA for her first international trip should come as no surprise of course. The USA is by far the largest investor in the UK and the new government is keen to see the success that the UK has had over recent decades in attracting US companies to the UK maintained and to add to this success by convincing US capital to invest in the UK’s infrastructure projects and energy transition ambitions.
At the event, Ms. Reeves talked about the accelerating economic growth as her number one priority, as she did consistently in the run up to the election. She also talked about the importance of private business as a crucial component of this growth and clearly wants to be seen as a business-friendly administration. Whether business reciprocates this affection will become clearer over the next couple of months as the government delivers its budget in October, hosts the 2024 Investment Summit on October 14th, conducts a strategic defense review, and publishes the details of the Employment Rights Bill that it has promised in the manifesto and King’s Speech. Both the Chancellor and the Prime Minister have been busy managing expectations about what is to come, with tax increases and more cost and regulation associated with employment, clearly on the table.
Everyone will have their own view about the approach being taken of course (and the concept that an alternative to raising taxes could be government spending less is deeply out of fashion in the UK for now) but it is hard to see how a rise in business taxes and employment costs squares with a pro-growth, pro-investment agenda. We will see.
The shake-up in US politics since my last member newsletter at the start of July has been nothing short of extraordinary. After a calamitous debate performance (and enormous pressure from his own party) President Biden stood down as a candidate for re-election and endorsed the Vice President, Kamala Harris. The speed and unanimity with which the Democrats have supported their new candidate has been stunning, given the less than universal approval with which her potential as a candidate has been viewed in the past. The race is still incredibly close but seems to now be leaning Democrat when just two months ago a second Trump win looked more likely.
The next 10 weeks of campaigning will be noisy and chaotic and there will be further twists and turns. At BAB, with no party-political affiliation, we would like to see a bit more detail from the candidates about their economic and business policies either through the debates (if more than one) or through robust interviews. The published policy platforms, and campaign remarks do provide some sense of the likely policy direction but are very short on detail.
The fact that the UK budget and US election are within a few days of each other means that one way or another we are in for a hugely consequential week for transatlantic business.
BAB will have a full program of events and engagements over the coming months, including looking at the impact of the US election on the international business community. We will also launch our latest Policy Agenda, with a comprehensive list of priority issues raised by our members, all focused on enhancing trade and investment between the US and UK. And there will be lots of networking opportunities for those of you looking to meet other members in New York, London and Washington; so please keep an eye on our website and connect with your membership contact for details of upcoming events. As always, it is going to be fascinating to watch the politics in action and I hope to see you along the way.
