It’s been an eventful couple of weeks in politics on both sides of the Atlantic, somewhat more so in Washington than Westminster! American voters delivered a clear message to the White House, setting up an interesting final two years of the second Trump presidency. With attention already turning to the 2028 presidential race, political positioning is unlikely to be in short supply. But there are some big economic questions that won’t wait for the next election, not least how the US meets the enormous energy and infrastructure demands of the AI boom while keeping costs affordable for households and businesses. There ought to be some common ground here, even in a divided Washington.
Divided government is not remotely unusual in the US; in fact, exactly 50 out of the last 100 years the party holding the White House has not been in control of the House or the Senate or both. In general, business has done well in these years, but we expect some bumps this time around. Firstly, there will be a torrent of investigations, with firms connected to AI, Crypto, support for presidential projects and others being subpoenaed. And second, there are crucial financing bills to be passed which inevitably will be opportunities for leverage and brinkmanship. It certainly won’t be dull.
There has been some negative market reaction as investors think through the implications for continued AI build out but our assessment for the US economy and growth rates remains positive. There has been bi-partisan support for an America First agenda, in one guise or another, for the last 10 years, and we don’t see that changing.
Back in the UK, the Budget generated rather less excitement. It was hardly the reset for growth that many businesses had hoped for. There were some welcome measures, but little to address the underlying challenges of high energy costs, taxation and regulation. Increasing the tax burden on banks, one of the UK’s most internationally successful sectors, seems a counterproductive way to encourage investment. On a more positive note, we welcomed the Government’s decision to approve production at the Jackdaw gas field. It is a sensible step towards a more balanced UK energy policy, although the wider challenge of high industrial energy costs remains.
Looking ahead, the Burnham government’s efforts to reset relations with the EU are gathering pace, and we will be monitoring the November 20 summit. Closer ties with European neighbours will be welcomed by many businesses, particularly where they help reduce barriers to trade but closer regulatory alignment could also have implications for the UK-US trading relationship. Improving trade with the EU and strengthening our transatlantic relationship should not be competing objectives, but the details will matter. We would welcome hearing from members about the opportunities or concerns they see as these discussions progress.
There has been plenty happening at BAB over the past few weeks too. Our recent AGM and Chairman’s Reception provided a welcome opportunity to reflect on the year as well as hear some fascinating pre-election insights from Signum’s Charles Myers, always a pleasure. I want to thank Alastair Borthwick of Bank of America for his excellent service as Chair and for the support and guidance he has given BAB during his tenure. We are delighted that Sean Doyle of British Airways has now stepped into the Chair role, alongside Sir Rob Fairbairn of BlackRock as Vice Chair. Both bring enormous experience and a deep commitment to the transatlantic business relationship, and I look forward to working with them and the Board in the year ahead.
Chairman’s Reception at Bank of America Tower in New York – 28 October 2026
Our events programme has been equally busy. We held Economic Outlook events in Washington and New York, with London to follow next week. There has certainly been no shortage of economic and political uncertainty to keep our speakers occupied this year! My thanks to our expert panellists and everyone who joined us for these conversations. We were also pleased to host David Miliband of the International Rescue Committee and Carl Hess, CEO of WTW, for fascinating discussions on the changing geopolitical landscape, and our roundtables on energy, AI and cybersecurity brought members together for some excellent exchanges on issues facing businesses on both sides of the Atlantic.
Annual Global Economic Outlook
Washington D.C.
30 September 2026
Annual Global Economic Outlook
New York
2 November 2026
And now, with the holiday season approaching, there is plenty more to look forward to. Our calendar is packed with events, including Thanksgiving celebrations and festive lunches. If you haven’t done so already, please do book your ticket or table for the New York Holiday Lunch by contacting Julia Greenberg. These events are always wonderful opportunities to reconnect with friends and colleagues, and I hope to see many of you before the year is out.
Duncan